SNAP, Medicaid Could Be Key Targets for New Administration, Panel Says

Poverty policy changes to watch for in the early weeks and months of the new Trump administration include cuts to food assistance programs such as SNAP, greater latitude for states in implement Medicaid work requirements and a new debate on an expanded Child Tax Credit, according to a bipartisan panel sponsored Wednesday by the Institute for Research on Poverty at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Panelists in the online forum—titled A New Era in Poverty Policy: The Social Safety Net in the Second Trump Administration—agreed that states should expect potentially major new directions in anti-poverty programs, though truly drastic changes may take time to wind their way through Congress.

“If the federal government cuts funding, then that can have a great impact on a state’s ability, not just to implement that program, but then how they spend resources across other programs in order to help people in whatever area it might be, whether it’s healthcare, housing or something else,” said Peggy Bailey, executive Vice President for Policy and Program Development, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

Some specific areas to watch, according to the panel:

• Whether the administration looks to make changes quickly through executive orders or rule changes or instead looks to institute more long-lasting reforms through congressional action. “We should probably expect to see Congress jump in and hopefully make some changes that are going to be a bit more durable,” said Josh McCabe, director of Social Policy, Niskanen Center.
• More waivers for states to implement Medicaid work requirements, though recent pilot programs in Arkansas and Georgia have resulted in large numbers of recipients losing coverage because of an overwhelming administrative burden, said Pamela Herd, the Carol Kakalec Kohn Professor of Social Policy, Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, University of Michigan.
• SNAP will be a prime target for cuts and reforms, said Angela Rachidi, Senior Fellow and Rowe Scholar, American Enterprise Institute, because of the program’s size and widespread concerns about fraud, duplication and effectiveness. “I think there’s rightly going to be a lot of attention on food assistance in the coming years. And I think it certainly should be a focus and I think it will be for not only improvements and just the way the program operates, but definitely potential target for cuts.”
• Expect a debate about the lessons to be learned from COVID-era policies such as the expanded Child Tax Credit and increased unemployment insurance and more experimentation by states in adopting those policies on their own.
• McCabe said the looming debate about the expiring provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act—which he jokingly called the “Super Bowl of tax policy”—will likely determine the likelihood of any future expanded Child Tax Credit.
• The new Department of Government Efficiency overseen by Elon Musk could target anti-poverty programs for possible cuts and reforms. “I think there’s a lot of opportunity to increase efficiencies, reduce redundancy,” said Rachidi. “There’s so much duplication. There’s an opportunity to look at rules and regulations across programs, align definitions of basic things like what is a child, which is different depending on the program that you’re talking about.”

Bailey urged advocates attending the webinar to keep the potential impacts on low-income Americans front and center—particularly those in historically underserved communities— as these debates begin to take place.

“We’re not explaining the impact on people and then talking about that from a different demographic lens, particularly on folks who have faced racism and discrimination in this country for a really, really long time,” Bailey said. “And that’s one of the reasons why these safety net programs are so essential is because of the ways that racism and discrimination have shown up.”